Trump would still have won in 2024, even if everyone had voted: NPR

Even if anyone who is eligible to vote in the country would have voted, President Trump would still have won the 2024 presidential elections, A new study Finding from the Pew Research Center on Thursday.

Trump won by just under 50% of the votes in 2024, 49.7% -48.2% compared to Democrat Kamala Harris.

Roughly 64% of the eligible voting population turned out In 2024, the second highest since 1904. 2020 was the highest.

But even if anyone who could vote, would have won with an even wider margin, 48%-45%, according to Pew’s validated voter research.

The investigation of nearly 9,000 voters was conducted in the weeks after the 2024 presidential elections. Pew verified whether or not they had voted in the last five presidential elections using publicly available commercial voter files. For the context, the most well -guided national polls include around 1,000 interviews.

Pew asked non-voters how they would have voted and discovered that they would have broken for Trump, 44%-40%. That is a major change compared to 2020 and 2016 when they said they would have chosen Democrats. In 2020 they said they preferred Joe Biden 46%-35%. In 2016It was Hillary Clinton, 37%-30%.

That increases a long -term conviction in politics that helps Democrats in general. Younger and non-white voters, who tend to vote democratically, are also one of the least likely to vote.

But in 2024 the coalition of Trump grew – it became more ethnically diverse and younger.

In 2016, almost 9-on-10 Trump voters were white (88%). In 2024 it was 78%.

In the meantime, the coalition of Harris Witter – 64% of Harris’s voters was white compared to 60% in 2016 for Clinton.

Trump was also able to love his coalition more from 2020 than Harris van Biden’s. Trump won 85% of his 2020 voters; Harris won 79% of the Biden’s.

About 15% of Biden voters did not vote, 5% switched to Trump and 1% voted for someone else. That is compared to 11% of the 2020 Trump voters, who have put it out, 3% that switched to Harris and 1% who went for someone else.

Moreover, Trump won more of those who did not vote in 2020, but decided to cast a vote in 2024. Almost three-quarters of 2020 non-voters stayed home again. But with a margin of 52% -45%, Trump won the 2020 non -voters that voted in 2024.

When looking at all eligible voters, including those who stayed at home, Trump won 32% of that total population. Harris won 31%.