Trump means that uncertainty is the new certainty for the UK

The world has changed, the Chancellor said – and hours later he did that again.

It is a sentence that has become a familiar expression in Westminster in recent days and De Lijn used to justify the shift in priorities and has announced cutbacks Rachel Reeves in its spring statement.

When people in the government say that the world has changed what they mean, at least partially, Donald Trump is back in the White House and they cannot be sure what will happen from a distance.

In the last example of Stagecraft and Statecraft who amounts to the same amounts to the US president, he has drawn up in a news conference that Washington would impose an input load or rate of 25% on all cars that America buys from abroad.

For the UK, the US is the second largest export market after the EU, according to the Society of Motor manufacturers and traders.

Two and a little months in Trump’s second term, the government’s strategy in the UK is to argue privately and to say as little as possible in public.

“If you are questioned, nowt is” how you could describe the approach in the neighborhood, against the temptation to be drawn in commentary on the President’s actions for fear of provoking his explosion.

And after Work is underway to agree on a trade agreement in the USWho can offer some insulation from the whims and widths of Trump.

But all this underlines that uncertainty is the new certainty and a considerable bandwidth is absorbed within the government, anticipating what could be around the corner and then tries to negotiate and/or the consequences of what is expected to change.

The independent predictor, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), has nevertheless tried the almost impossible task of economic projections with such swirling uncertainty.

With more than a splash of understatement, the OBR writes in its latest economic and fiscal prospects – which was accompanied by the Spring Statement of the Chancellor – that “after the election of a new US government in November, American trade policy and that of the most important trading partners in Flux remain”.

You can say that again.

Over five pages, the OBR works through different scenarios after an increase in rates of 20 percentage points by the US.

Firstly about countries other than the UK, then in all countries, including the UK and ultimately again in all countries, including the UK, but where those countries answer with equivalent rates for American goods.

Flick to page 40 here to read yourself.

The most serious, in which retribution is involved, calculates the predictors, “would almost completely eliminate the headroom against the tax mandate” with other words, near Nuke in itself, all budget shuffling and considerations with which Reeves has juggled in recent weeks.

Blimey.

For this reason, there will be desperate among many ministers to prevent everything that takes place near this scenario.

And all this just a few days before Trump has mentioned “Liberation Day” next Tuesday, when, yes, a large number of new rates are expected.

The world has changed and continues to change.