There is no return from heat this decade because they have globally agreed to 1.5 ° C borders

Temperature boundaries that the world agreed to avoid being displayed.

AND global temperature It was warmer than 1.5 ° C than the pre -industrial average for almost two years. The reason is, exaggerated, that greenhouse gas emissions are at a record height from burning fossil fuels and forests.

In Novi analysisThe World Meteorological Organization predicted that globally average warming would remain above 1.5 ° C until the end of the decade. According to some measures, this world would set up almost halfway to the lower border of the Paris Agreement, which called on countries to avoid warming up 1.5 ° C as an average of 20 years.

The transition of globally agreed temperature limit is scary. Maybe it’s a terrifying speed at which it seems to violate our promises.

Half a year of record heat

After 2024, it was confirmed as the warmest in 175 years of temperature section, some Climate scientists Expected 2025. Be cooler. El Niño, a warm phase in the natural cycle of earthly climate, silenced and cooler La niña was set up to start.

This climate fluctuation, focused on the Pacific Ocean, slowly falls water and heats between ocean pools Every few years and interfere with Time forms around the world.

“Typically, La Niña will lower global temperature With several dozen Celsius diplomas, “explains Richard P. Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading.” However, this time, obviously not enough to stop the world warming – even temporarily. “

January 2025 was the hottest recorded – warmer than 1.7 ° C than average January before mass burning coal, oil and gas. Allan claims that “the warming of the ocean -guided man is increasingly overcome by these natural climate patterns.”

The ocean has absorbed most of the heat formed by our shows, but this blue buffer between us and the hot atmosphere shows signs of breakage. AND Research Station This takes the Western English channel temperature for over 120 years Conditions “almost continuous sea heat wave”According to the Oceanographer Smythu from the Plymouth Sea Laboratory.

A record -based Atlantic Ocean is a bad news for people living in the Caribbean and southeast of North America. In her last forecast for the 2025 hurricane season, which begins on June 1, the American national oceanographic and atmospheric administration (Noa) predicted “above average” Number of cyclone storms.

A large part of this elevated risk is due to warmer seawater on the ocean surface that stimulates stronger storms. But there is only so much that meteorologists can do to stay in front of the warming climate, such as the rapid rate of global heating extends long -term prediction to its turning point.

“The rapidly changing climate means that we have not necessarily experienced the extremes that modern atmospheric and ocean warmth can produce,” says atmosphere scientist Simon H. Lee (University of St Andrews), Hayley J. Fowler climate scientist Paul Davies (both of the Newcastle University).

“In a stable climate, scientists would have had more decades for the atmosphere to enter its different configurations and start extreme events, such as heat waves, floods or droughts,” they say. Scientists usually use time observations collected over a period of 30 years to characterize the climate.

“But in our rapidly changing climate, we only effectively have a few years – not enough to experience everything the climate can offer.”

How hot will it be?

Compared to the average temperature in the second half of the 19th century, which scientists are usually called a pre -industrial basis of climate, the country is on its way to 2100. annual report Leading experts in the science of the earthly system, published in October 2024.

This conclusion is based on governments that fulfill their goals of the emission (big IF) and may be outdated, given the unexpectedly hot first half of 2025.

By itself, this charity assessment projects almost twice the level of warming up almost twice. It is unclear if civilization could survive climate conditions like these, which are radically hostile of everything our ancestors experienced.

What is behind the speed of accelerating global warming? Here are two reports of the report, Ecologists Thomas Newsome of the University of Sydney and William Ripple from the Oregon State University.

“We follow 35 earthly vital signs every year, of The circumference of the sea ice to the forests. [In 2024]25 is now at a record level, All in trend in the wrong directions“They say.

While Renewable energy sources As the wind and solar grew, the use of fossil fuels remains 14 times larger. Furthermore, aerosols that are effective in reflecting solar energy back into space, and is thought to fall into the atmosphere in the atmosphere.

“Other environmental issues are now feeding on climate change,” Newsome and Ripple continue. Forests reduction reduces the amount of carbon stored on the mainland, while rising temperatures and extreme time dry and burn other carbon -rich habitats, such as swamp and peat.

The sea ice is also melted, ensuring that the ocean absorbs even more heat that is trapped by a gossip of greenhouse gases.

He is gloomy. But how many planets heating this century is a moving target: everything we do today, and in the coming years it will lower it. On this front, Sven Teska has news – if not good news, Less bad news– Sharing.

“Humanity has changed enough trace to prevent the worst climate future,” he says.

“Renewable energy sources, energy efficiency and the other measures moved the dial. AND The worst scenario Extended use of coal, exalted emission and a much hot world is not unlikely. “

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