Minutes fed January 2025:

Federal reserve officials in January agreed that they would have to make inflation to fall more before further reduction of interest rates and expressed concern about the president of influence Donald TrumpThe tariffs would do this, according to the protocols of the meeting published on Wednesday.

Decision -makers at the Federal Committee of the Open Market unanimously decided at the meeting to maintain their key policy rate after three consecutive cuts with a total value of the percentage point in 2024.

When making a decision, members commented on the potential impact of the new administration, including conversations on tariffs, as well as the impact of reduced regulations and taxes. The committee noted that the current policy is “much less restrictive” than before lowering the rates, giving members time to assess the conditions before making additional movements.

Members said that the current policy gives “time to assess the evolving prospects of business, the labor market and inflation, the vast majority indicate the still limiting attitude of politics. Participants pointed out that, provided that the economy remained almost maximum employment, would like to see further progress in the field of inflation before making additional adaptations to the target range of federal funds. “

Officials noticed concerns about the potential of politics changes to maintain inflation above the Fed target.

The president has already established some tariffs, but in recent days he threatened to expand them.

In the notes to reporters on Tuesday, Trump said that he was looking at 25% of duties at the autopian, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor that would accelerate throughout the year. Although he did not go too far into details, the tariffs would transfer commercial policy to a higher level and pose a further threat to prices when inflation has decreased, but there is still a 2%target above.

Fomc members cited, as summarized by the meeting: “The impact of potential changes in trade and immigration policy and strong demand for consumer. Business contacts in many districts have indicated that companies will try to provide consumers with higher expenditure costs. from potential tariffs. “

In addition, they noticed the “risk of increasing inflation perspectives. In particular, the participants cited possible effects of potential changes in commercial policy and immigration. “

Since the meeting, most central bank officials have talked in cautious tons about where politics was going. Most look at the current level of rates in a situation where they can devote time to assessing how to proceed.

In addition to general FED officials in relation to employment and inflation, Trump’s plans regarding fiscal and commercial policies have increased wrinkles.

On the other hand, worries about tariffs and inflation of the minutes noticed “significant optimism regarding economic perspectives, resulting partly from waiting for the alleviation of government regulations or changes in tax policy.”

Many economists expect tariffs that Trump plans to introduce inflation to deteriorate, although FED decision makers have found that their reaction will depend on whether they are one -off increases or generate more basic inflation that would require a political response.

Inflation indicators have recently been mixed, and consumer prices have increased more than expected in January, but wholesale prices indicate the soft pressure of the pipeline.

Fed chair Jerome Powell He generally avoided speculation about the impact of tariffs. However, other officials expressed concern and admitted that Trump’s movements could affect politics, perhaps more delaying rate reductions. Market prices currently provide for the next reduction in July or September.

The FED reference rate is currently targeted between 4.25%-4.5%.