Flu season could be bad this winter: NPR

The U.S. may be in for another severe flu winter, according to early data.

“The signs are that it could be a big season,” he says Richard Webbywho studies the flu at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis. “Flu season could see a bit of a breakthrough this year.”

The first indication of what might be coming is the impact of the flu during the Southern Hemisphere winter. This often predicts what is to come in the Northern Hemisphere.

“There has been pretty good flu activity in many parts of the Southern Hemisphere,” Webby says. “It actually took longer – the end of the season took longer than usual.”

And now parts of the Northern Hemisphere, such as the UK, are being hit hard. This often gives an idea of ​​what lies ahead for the USA

Another indication is the flu strain that has so far prevailed in the northern hemisphere. It is an H3N2 flu virus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Flu tracker.

And H3N2 viruses “tend to be a little more problematic,” Webby says. “When we have an H3N2 season, we tend to have a little more activity and a little more disease at the severe end of the spectrum.”

The last major flu season dominated by H3N2 was 2016-2017.

Additionally, a new H3N2 variant has recently emerged and has become the dominant strain in the United States

“Basically there is a new variant of the flu circulating that has mutated a little bit,” he says Caitlin Riversan epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins. “And that means it’s just different enough from what your body or the vaccine might detect that it can somehow bypass those protective measures.”

And she says the flu shot this year “may not be as good a fit as if we hadn’t seen this new variant.”

However, data from the UK suggests the vaccines are still making a difference, says Rivers. In the UK, the vaccines appear to be around 70 to 75% protective against hospitalization in children and around 30 to 40% protective against hospitalization in adults.

That’s why Rivers and others are urging anyone who hasn’t received a flu shot to get one.

“Definitely get this as soon as possible. Because the activity is low right now. But it’s increasing. And it’s going to continue to increase until we reach the peak, which is usually around the holiday season. There’s no point in waiting if we get into flu season,” Rivers says.

It takes about two weeks for immunity to kick in. And people don’t want to get infected or spread the flu over Thanksgiving. The flu kills about 12,000 to 52,000 people in the United States each winter.

“I have concerns that uptake of both influenza and annual COVID vaccinations will not be as high this year as in previous years,” Rivers said. She’s concerned about rhetoric from federal health officials questioning “whether vaccines are safe and effective.”

“We know they are,” she says. “And they’re important for protecting against serious illness. That’s why it’s really important that people go out and get them this year.”

In a written statement to NPR, a Health and Human Services spokesperson said, “It is still too early to know which viruses will spread this season, to what extent, and how well the vaccine will work in the United States.”

The statement continued: “The decision to vaccinate is a personal decision. Individuals should speak with their healthcare provider about the risks and benefits of vaccination.”