Disappointment of China’s retail sales because the stimulus does not cause demand; Industrial production opposes tariffs

The increase in retail sales in China was released in April, data from National Statistics Office He showed Monday, signaling that consumption remains a worry for the second largest economy in the world.

According to Reuters, retail sales increased by 5.1% compared to the year of the year, according to estimates by a 5.5% increase in analysts by 5.5%. Sales had grown by 5.9% in previous ones month.

Industrial production increased by 6.1% in April, stronger than the expectations of analysts on an increase of 5.5%, while Slowdown with 7.7% stroke In March, an indication that the influence of American tariffs was not as strict as expected.

“We should be aware that there are still many unstable and uncertain factors [the] External environment – said the statistical office. “The Foundation for Sustainable Economic Recovery must be even more consolidated.”

Investment for a constant assessment for the first four months this year, including investments in real estate and infrastructure, increased by 4.0%Slightly lower than the expectations of analysts as to the 4.2% increase in the Reuters survey.

The unemployment rate in cities in April decreased to 5.1% from 5.2% in March, at a time when the US-China trading war led economists to warn against significant loss of jobs in China.

US President Donald Trump placed a 145% tariff for imports from China, which entered into force in April, while Beijing took up 125% of the American import fees.

Answering questions about the impact of the ongoing trade conflict with the USA, spokesman of Bureau Statistics Fu Linghui emphasized Beijing’s efforts to diversify exports to other regions, noting that commercial data in April indicated overall resistance.

China exports increased more than expected in AprilAs a jump in shipments to Southeast Asia countries

In April, US -related parcels fell by more than 21% compared to the previous year. According to customs data, in the first four months this year China exports to the US fell by 2.5%.

Fu added that a recent reduction in mutual tariffs will bring benefits to trade to both parties, while warning that domestic demand, including consumption, still had no pace.

Car sales increased last month only 0.7% compared to the year of the year, compared to 5.5% jump in Marchdespite Extended program This subsidizes consumers and companies for trade in vehicles and other selected products, including smartphones and home appliances.

As part of the investment in permanent assets, the resistance from the property deteriorated, falling by 10.3% in the year in April.

The real estate sector remained in the “correction” period, and the pressure on the sector was still large in some regions, said FU.

A separate version of the data has shown that houses in China extended drops to 4%

The Chinese CSI 300 indicator dropped by 0.39%, while the Chinese Juan at sea changed little to 7,2133 compared to Greenback.

While industrial production measures the value of goods generated in sectors such as production, mining and media, production Purchase of index managers of the enterprise indicator “Enterprise”.

Wholesale prices recorded the strongest decrease in six months in April, while consumer prices fell on the third moth, emphasizing permanent deflational pressure in the economy.

Companies that reload US-related shipments before the end of the 90-day window, will probably support Chinese exports and industrial products in the coming months, said Lisheng Wang, China Economist at Goldman Sachs, after the latest version of the data.

The indicators show that container reservations increased last week after the suspension of tariff weapons, Tommy Xie, managing director and head of Asia Macro Research at OCBC Bank on Monday.

The seven -day average volume of container reservations from May 14 increased by 277% compared to the week ending on May 5, said Xie, citing data from the Vizion container tracking software supplier.

Last week, Goldman Sachs improved its forecast for China’s volume of export volume to 0% from 5% inheritance, expecting that the economy will increase by 4.6% in 2025, from the previous base line 4.0%.

Wang warned, however, that “short -term growth force” could cost “reimbursement effects”, calling for a greater policy of stabilizing growth, employment and market moods.

The Chinese government implemented Stimulus network To stimulate consumption in various sectors and support of enterprises to which tariffs have affected and strengthen employment.

At the beginning of this month, the Bank of People’s China announced a reduction in seven -day buy -off rates by 10 base points to 1.4% from 1.5%. According to the Governor of the Central Bank, Mr. Gongshenga will reduce the main rate of politics, known as the loan rate by about 10 base points.

PBOC is expected to announce an annual and five -year LPR for May on Tuesday.