More than a month into the government shutdown, there is no end in sight — but predictions are rampant

It is said that everyone is a critic.

But when it comes to the government shutdown, everyone is an oracle.

Especially when you’re trying to figure out when it might end.

“[Democrats] waiting to choose [Zohran] Mamdani, the communist, future mayor of New York. And then I believe things will go back to normal,” Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., said on FOX Business. “If we don’t reopen this week, I think it will happen sometime shortly before Thanksgiving.”

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Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., also made her own prediction.

“I believe this week could be the week,” Capito said on FOX Business.

But Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, wasn’t so sure.

“I don’t know what the predictions are based on,” Cornyn told Fox. “We continue to look for rational behavior on the part of Democrats who shut down the government. But it was a stupid idea to begin with. And things haven’t gotten better since.”

Everyone is now looking for a glimmer of hope. A glimmer of reason why the government shutdown won’t deepen.

But all this week represents is a new opportunity. There have been several turning points along the way, but nothing has produced the same opportunity to end the shutdown as this week.

Yes, emergency food aid for the country’s neediest expired on Saturday. Air traffic is getting worse by the hour. Healthcare premiums formally increased on Saturday — which is why Democrats refused to fund the government in the first place.

But none of these developments have really forced the parties back to the negotiating table. That’s why some see Tuesday’s election as a potential turning point.

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Mamdani is the odds-on favorite to become the next mayor of New York City. Republicans now project that the election is the reason Democrats haven’t given up on government funding. They believe certain election results — a win by progressive Mamdani in New York combined with what Republicans hope will be losses to moderate former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., who is running for governor of Virginia, and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., who is running for governor of New Jersey — will spur Democrats into action. Republicans believe such results will force Democrats to view their party as out of reach.

“I hope tomorrow’s election will be a change. A big change in all of this,” he said Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike JohnsonR-La. “I hope that after everyone votes, they go to their rooms and make the calculation that, well, maybe we don’t have to hold that line anymore.”

Republicans know the shutdown will eventually end. But if it ends soon, they want to shape the narrative that “the Democrats caved because of the election results.”

Remember, Republicans have been predicting the end of the shutdown for five weeks now.

“The cracks were beginning to appear in the Democratic base,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., exclaimed on Oct. 1.

Republicans were confident that Democrats would give in within days once the shutdown began.

It never happened.

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The GOP then argued those Democrats held out only until the “No Kings” rallies ended on October 19 – by which time Democrats “would have shown they were fighting.”

“They won’t be able to reopen the government until after that meeting,” Johnson predicted on Fox on October 10.

There was nothing of the sort.

The Republican Party then changed its argument that Democrats were about to concede because federal workers were missing their paychecks. Especially air traffic controllers.

“We’re getting to the point where the consequences of this are very real,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Fox on Oct. 23.

That theory also failed.

Republicans then pinned their hopes on the next missed paycheck, coupled with flight delays, expiring SNAP benefits and rising health insurance premiums on November 1.

“The Democrats will completely collapse,” he predicted Senator Ted CruzR-Texas, on Fox this weekend.

But nothing changed.

“We will not support a partisan, Republican spending bill that continues to undermine the American people’s health care,” Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said. “That has been our position. Week after week after week – and it will continue to be our position.”

Say what you will about the Democrats’ strategy. But they are not folded.

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Keep in mind that since mid-September, Republicans have been trying unsuccessfully to convince Senate Democrats to accept a Republican Party spending plan that would only fund the government through November 21.

“It’s almost getting into a moot point now,” Cornyn says. “I don’t know what they’re going to do next.”

Thune stated that the 21st is now a “lost” date.

The undersigned asked House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., what the “drop dead date” was for Republicans to play again.

“With November 21, that’s not much [of] time to resolve differences,” Scalise responded.

There are now rumors that Republicans are drafting another short-term bill through January.

“The longer a runway, the better,” Thune said. “I’m certainly listening to our colleagues and trying to figure out where that landing site would be.”

But there’s no guarantee that either chamber could pass such a measure — especially if Democrats’ core demands aren’t met.

In his daily prayer to open the Senate session, Senate Chaplain Barry Black suggested that lawmakers needed help resolving the crisis — simply because they were no closer to a solution than they were at the end of September.

“Inspire our lawmakers to unite in putting out the fire of this government shutdown, which has already burned far more than expected,” Black prayed.

It’s too unpredictable to make a good prediction about when the shutdown will end. But if you predict enough things, you will eventually get something right.

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What about this prediction:

The lockdown will end.

Possibly.

And that’s really the only safe prediction anyone can make at this point.